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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – September 6-7

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 09/05/24, 1:45PM EDT

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Louisville City, Charleston Battery can claim their postseason berths this week


Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and Rhode Island FC meet at Highmark Stadium on Saturday night in one of this weekend's key games in the race for the postseason. | Photo courtesy Ben Reimann / Rhode Island FC

Welcome to the latest edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs presented by Terminix, where we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2024 USL Championship Playoffs in October.

This weekend, Louisville City FC and the Charleston Battery can clinch a postseason berth – LouCity can get there on its own, while the Battery will need a little help from elsewhere to seal their return to the postseason. Elsewhere, we’ve got some key games around the playoff line in both the Eastern and Western Conference to watch.

This season, we’re grateful to our friend John Morrissey at USL Tactics for providing the data for playoff projections. Now, here are some games to watch and an overview of where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Friday, September 6
Phoenix Rising FC
FC Tulsa
11:00 PM
Stadium IconPhoenix Rising Stadium at 38th St/Washington
Match Center
Tickets

You probably wouldn’t have predicted this to be a playoff six-pointer at the start of the season, but here we are. With Tulsa in seventh place and Phoenix in eighth – and both sitting on 30 points – this is a huge game for both clubs. If either comes out victorious, it’ll be big for their playoff chances. If they end up all square, they’ll both still be in a battle with the teams below the playoff line.

Saturday, September 7
Hartford Athletic
Indy Eleven
7:00 PM
Stadium IconTrinity Health Stadium
Match Center
Tickets

This is much more of a must-win for Hartford in terms of the playoff race with the Athletic sitting five points out of the top eight in the East with nine games to play. They’ve been much better at home than away this season, though, and with Indy winless in its last three league outings – and needing a Romario Williams wonder-strike against Pittsburgh last week to avoid that being three consecutive defeats – the Boys in Blue need a win to boost their top-four chances and keep the teams below the playoff line at bay.

Saturday, September 7
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Rhode Island FC
7:00 PM
Stadium IconHighmark Stadium
Match Center
Tickets

The Hounds are running out of games to make up ground in the East which makes this game at home to Rhode Island huge for their playoff prospects. RIFC is looking well set for the playoffs after winning a six-pointer last week against Birmingham Legion, however, and has lost only once in the last 13 outings. A win would be big for the visitors, too, as they pursue a top-four finish in their inaugural campaign.

Saturday, September 7
Monterey Bay F.C.
San Antonio FC
10:00 PM
Stadium IconCardinale Stadium
Match Center
Tickets

This isn’t an elimination game for Monterey Bay and San Antonio, but it has the feeling of one with both teams below the playoff line going into the weekend. Neither side is in good form as of now – Monterey Bay is winless in its last seven, while San Antonio has one win in its last seven – but if either can come out with all three points it could be huge for that side, and deal another blow to the losing party.

Western Conference

1. New Mexico United
Record: 15-7-3, 48pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 2nd (60.6 points)
Max Points Available: 75pts

Magic Number: 5

Up Next: vs. MIA (9/6)
+
Outlook: New Mexico saw its margin of error for first place slide a fraction with its loss in Oakland, and that means it can’t quite take its place in the postseason due to Orange County SC being on a bye this weekend, which will keep OCSC’s maximum available points total at 52. The ideal results elsewhere for United are a draw between Monterey Bay F.C. and San Antonio FC, and for the Charleston Battery to take a win or draw against Sacramento Republic FC.
2. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 11-5-8, 41pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 1st (61.0 points)
Max Points Available: 71pts

Magic Number: 12

Up Next: at CHS (9/7)
+
Outlook: Sacramento’s NorCal rival Oakland Roots did it a favor in taking victory against New Mexico United last weekend, and now it will try to claim victory on the road against Charleston to at least maintain the gap at four points. The challenge? The Battery are 10-1-1 at home this season.
3. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 12-10-4, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 85%

Projected Finish: 5th (51.5 points)
Max Points Available: 64pts

Magic Number: 13

Up Next: at NC (9/7)
+
Outlook: Roots moved into third place with its victory at home to New Mexico United but dropped a spot in the projections thanks to Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC’s six-point week. Oakland is still well on course for the playoffs, and it will have a few Eastern Conference sides hoping it can take a win or draw against North Carolina this weekend.
4. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 11-10-6, 39pts

Playoffs Odds: 87%

Projected Finish: 3rd (54.2 points)
Max Points Available: 60pts

Magic Number: 14

Up Next: vs. HFD (9/11)
+
Outlook: Memphis is still projected to finish in the top three despite last weekend’s victories for Oakland, Colorado Springs and Las Vegas, but will be hoping Roots and the Switchbacks drop points this weekend as it gets a bye before a two-game week that starts next Wednesday night at home to Hartford Athletic.
5. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 11-10-5, 38pts

Playoffs Odds: 83%

Projected Finish: 5th (52.6 points)
Max Points Available: 62pts

Magic Number: 15

Up Next: vs. TBR (9/7)
+
Outlook: The Switchbacks’ six-point week saw them jump up to a projected fourth-place finish ahead as they close in on a fourth consecutive postseason berth. This Saturday night’s home game against the Tampa Bay Rowdies will be a great litmus test for Colorado Springs’ greater aspirations.
6. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 10-8-8, 38pts

Playoffs Odds: 82%

Projected Finish: 6th (50.1 points)
Max Points Available: 62pts

Magic Number: 15

Up Next: at TUL (9/11)
+
Outlook: Las Vegas continued to push toward the postseason with its comeback victory against Orange County SC, moving everyone above the playoff line closer to their goal. The Lights will be hoping Oakland and Colorado Springs drop points this weekend during a bye week to keep a top-three finish within reach.
7. FC Tulsa
Record: 7-8-9, 30pts

Playoffs Odds: 64%

Projected Finish: 7th (40.9 points)
Max Points Available: 60pts

Magic Number: 23

Up Next: at PHX (9/6)
+
Outlook: Tulsa’s defeat to Colorado Springs on Sunday evening wasn’t too detrimental to their playoff chances thanks to Monterey Bay and Orange County also suffering defeats. Heading west to face Phoenix on Friday night, a bounce-back win would be massive, especially if Monterey Bay and San Antonio end up all square on Saturday night.
8. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 7-8-9, 30pts

Playoffs Odds: 46%

Projected Finish: 9th (37.8 points)
Max Points Available: 60pts

Magic Number: 23

Up Next: vs. TUL (9/6)
+
Outlook: Everything went right for Phoenix last weekend. It took victory at Loudoun United, ended its scoreless streak, and all three of Tulsa, Monterey Bay and Orange County suffered defeats. If Rising picks up another three points at home against Tulsa this Friday night, it’s going to be in great position, especially if Monterey Bay drops points.
9. Orange County SC
Record: 8-14-4, 28pts

Playoffs Odds: 32%

Projected Finish: 10th (35.9 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. RI (9/14)
+
Outlook: Orange County couldn’t have asked for a worse time to suffer its first loss after holding a two-goal lead since 2019 than last weekend against Las Vegas. Now OCSC is below the playoff line, projected to finish in 10th and has to be hoping for draws between Phoenix and Tulsa on Friday night and Monterey Bay and San Antonio on Saturday as interim Head Coach Danny Stone looks to maximize the club’s bye week.
10. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 7-12-7, 28pt

Playoffs Odds: 47%

Projected Finish: 8th (37.9 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. SA (9/7)
+
Outlook: Monterey Bay is still narrowly favored to finish in eighth place by the projections, but this Saturday’s home game against San Antonio is looking like a must-win for confidence alone. With Tulsa and Phoenix also squaring off this weekend, one or both of those clubs will drop points, so there’s the opportunity to gain lost ground back.
11. San Antonio FC
Record: 6-12-7, 25pt

Playoffs Odds: 29%

Projected Finish: 11th (35.7 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at MB (9/7)
+
Outlook: San Antonio dropped further back in the playoff race as it was unable to hold onto a lead against Charleston. That’s now 20 points dropped from winning positions – second-most in the league this season – and makes this Saturday’s game against Monterey Bay a must-win.
12. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 5-15-5, 20pts

Playoffs Odds: <1%

Projected Finish: 12th (24.8 points)
Max Points Available: 47pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. DET (9/7)
+
Outlook: Locomotive is 10 points out of the playoff places with nine games to go, which is typically the inflection point for where the postseason becomes out of reach. If it can take points off Detroit City this Saturday at home, however, it could have a big impact on the Eastern Conference playoff race.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Louisville City FC
Record: 18-5-2, 56pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 1st (74 points)
Max Points Available: 83pts

Magic Number: 2

Up Next: vs. LDN (9/6)
+
Outlook: Officially, LouCity’s Magic Number is two, but it’s effectively one thanks to the side sweeping the season series with North Carolina FC and NCFC’s maximum available points total sitting at 57.

Louisville City Clinches a Playoff Place if:
1. LouCity wins or draws vs. Loudoun United on Friday, moving to at least 57pts
OR – North Carolina FC fails to take victory against Oakland Roots SC on Saturday, dropping NCFC’s maximum to at least 55pts
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 15-4-8, 53pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 2nd (69.1 points)
Max Points Available: 74pts

Magic Number: 5

Up Next: vs. SAC (9/7)
+
Outlook: The Battery could clinch their playoff berth this weekend with a win or a draw, but would need a little help from Oakland Roots to get over the line as Roots visit North Carolina FC on Saturday night.

Charleston Battery Clinches a Playoff Place if:
1. Charleston takes victory vs. Sacramento Republic FC on Saturday to move to 56 points
AND – North Carolina FC fails to take victory against Oakland Roots on Saturday, dropping NCFC’s maximum to at least 55pts.
2. Charleston Battery draws with Sacramento Republic FC on Saturday to move to 54 points
AND – North Carolina FC loses to Oakland Roots SC, dropping NCFC’s maximum to 54pts. Battery clinch via the head-to-head tiebreaker
3. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 12-6-7, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: 93%

Projected Finish: 3rd (59.4 points)
Max Points Available: 70pts

Magic Number: 15

Up Next: vs. COS (9/7)
+
Outlook: The Rowdies come out of their bye week almost exactly in the same place as a week ago. This Saturday’s visit to Colorado Springs will be a good test for the side, and if Tampa Bay takes victory it could be in position to lock in a playoff spot in a two-game week in Week 28.
4. Detroit City FC
Record: 10-8-8, 38pts

Playoffs Odds: 75%

Projected Finish: 5th (48.5 points)
Max Points Available: 62pts

Magic Number: 20

Up Next: at ELP (9/7)
+
Outlook: Detroit held steady in the projections after its draw against Hartford – which continued a worrying winless run at Keyworth Stadium – and will be hoping it can find a win on the road against El Paso to boost its chances of staying in the top four. You can expect Le Rouge’s fans will have a close eye on the contests between Rhode Island FC and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, and Hartford Athletic and Indy Eleven earlier on Saturday night.
5. Rhode Island FC
Record: 8-5-13, 34pts

Playoffs Odds: 77%

Projected Finish: 4th (51.1 points)
Max Points Available: 61pts

Magic Number: 21

Up Next: at PIT (9/7)
+
Outlook: Rhode Island had the best week of any team vying for a top-four finish in the East with its win against Birmingham Legion, which increased its odds of coming out on top of the group of teams in the middle of the standings. This weekend’s visit to Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC is another six-pointer, though, especially with the Hounds desperate for all three points.
6. Indy Eleven
Record: 10-9-6, 36pts

Playoffs Odds: 71%

Projected Finish: 7th (45.6 points)
Max Points Available: 63pts

Magic Number: 22

Up Next: at HFD (9/7)
+
Outlook: Romario Williams’ stoppage-time free kick was a massive boost for Indy, which could have been under real pressure from Pittsburgh if the Hounds had held on to win last Saturday. This weekend’s visit to Hartford is going to have the same pressure level, which the Boys in Blue could help alleviate with a win.
7. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 10-11-5, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 69%

Projected Finish: 6th (46.1 points)
Max Points Available: 59pts

Magic Number: 23

Up Next: vs. TBR (9/11)
+
Outlook: Legion’s defeat to Rhode Island put a serious dent in its top-four aspirations, but thanks to all three of Pittsburgh, Loudoun and North Carolina dropping points, the damage in terms of a playoff berth wasn’t too severe. Birmingham is going to need to pick up the pace with eight games to go, and will be hoping Rhode Island and Louisville in particular get results this weekend.
8. Loudoun United FC
Record: 9-9-7, 34pts

Playoffs Odds: 52%

Projected Finish: 9th (42.7 points)
Max Points Available: 61pts

Magic Number: 24

Up Next: at LOU (9/6)
+
Outlook: Loudoun United probably deserved more out of its game against Phoenix, but that doesn’t show up in the standings. Now it faces the daunting task of visiting Louisville City on Friday night with the chance it could be below the playoff line by the end of the weekend if Pittsburgh takes victory against Rhode Island.
9. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 7-9-11, 32pts

Playoffs Odds: 59%

Projected Finish: 8th (43.9 points)
Max Points Available: 53pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. RI (9/7)
+
Outlook: The Hounds are still projected to finish above the playoff line, but they’re running out of games with only seven to play. This Saturday’s home game against Rhode Island is massive, especially if both Indy Eleven and Loudoun United come out on the short end in their road contests.
10. North Carolina FC
Record: 7-9-9, 30pts

Playoffs Odds: 38%

Projected Finish: 10th (38.5 points)
Max Points Available: 67pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. OAK (9/7)
+
Outlook: North Carolina has never scored four goals in a game in the USL Championship or League One and lost prior to last Saturday night against Louisville, which makes this weekend’s visit from Oakland Roots all the more important. If Rhode Island, Hartford and LouCity can also take victory, it would be a major boost for NCFC’s playoff chances.
11. Hartford Athletic
Record: 8-12-5, 29pts

Playoffs Odds: 34%

Projected Finish: 11th (36.5 points)
Max Points Available: 56pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. IND (9/7)
+
Outlook: Hartford’s chances ticked up marginally after its draw against Detroit City last weekend, but a victory at home against Indy Eleven this Saturday to close the gap to the playoff line would be huge. Add in defeats for Loudoun, Pittsburgh and North Carolina, and you’ve got the ideal weekend for an Athletic fan.
12. Miami FC
Record: 3-21-2, 11pts

Playoffs Odds: <1%

Projected Finish: 12th (13.7 points)
Max Points Available: 35pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at NM (9/6)
+
Outlook: Miami did everyone out west a favor with its victory against Monterey Bay and staved off mathematical elimination in the process. It faces the same scenario this weekend – anything but a win against New Mexico will end their playoff chances, and that still might not be enough depending on results elsewhere.

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Tag(s): Features  San Antonio FC  CO Spring Switchbacks  Orange County SC  Phoenix Rising FC  Sacramento Republic FC  FC Tulsa  Charleston Battery  Louisville City FC  Pittsburgh Riverhounds  Tampa Bay Rowdies  Las Vegas Lights FC  Birmingham Legion FC  North Carolina FC  Indy Eleven  Memphis 901 FC  El Paso Locomotive FC  New Mexico United  Loudoun United FC  Hartford Athletic  Miami FC  Oakland Roots SC  Detroit City FC  Monterey Bay F.C.  Rhode Island FC 

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