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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – September 11-14

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 09/12/24, 12:00PM EDT

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Find out how Louisville City FC and the Charleston Battery can clinch a top-four finish this weekend


Sacramento Republic FC and Phoenix Rising FC square off on Saturday night in a game that could be crucial to their playoff positioning in the Western Conference. | Photo courtesy Ashley Orellana / Phoenix Rising FC

Welcome to the latest edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs presented by Terminix, where we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2024 USL Championship Playoffs in October.

This week the Charleston Battery and New Mexico United can seal their places in the postseason, and both the Battery and Louisville City FC could clinch a place in the top four of the Eastern Conference as they continue to battle for the Players’ Shield.

This season, we’re grateful to our friend John Morrissey at USL Tactics for providing the data for playoff projections. Now, here are some midweek games to watch and an overview of where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Saturday, September 14
Loudoun United FC
Birmingham Legion FC
7:00 PM
Stadium IconSegra Field
Match Center
Tickets

Birmingham Legion earned a much-needed victory on Wednesday night to vault up to fifth place in the Eastern Conference. That ascent reflects how tight the race for position in the Eastern Conference is currently, however, and this weekend Loudoun United will be hoping to make a similar move as it tries to break out of a three-game scoreless funk. United would move within a point of Legion with a win here, and further muddy the battle for the top eight.

Saturday, September 14
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
7:30 PM
Stadium IconAl Lang Stadium
Match Center
Tickets

The Tampa Bay Rowdies remain in a position to take third place in the Eastern Conference, but the side’s run of four defeats in the past five games has opened the door to a challenge over the final seven games of the season. One of the clubs that might think it has a chance is Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, which moved above the playoff line last week and is currently on a 10-game undefeated streak. The Hounds took victory in their last visit to Al Lang Stadium to clinch the Players’ Shield a season ago and would continue their drive for a seventh consecutive postseason berth with a repeat result here.

Saturday, September 14
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Charleston Battery
8:00 PM
Stadium IconWeidner Field
Match Center
Tickets

The Switchbacks enter the weekend in third place in the Western Conference, and the Battery in second place in the East, but both are aiming for more in the latest game that could be tabbed as a potential USL Championship Final matchup. Both teams are coming off impressive wins with Colorado Springs bagging its third victory in a row with 4-2 result against the Tampa Bay Rowdies and Charleston having rallied past Sacramento Republic FC for a 2-1 win last weekend. Both know they need three points to keep pushing forward, and that could make for high entertainment.

Saturday, September 14
Sacramento Republic FC
Phoenix Rising FC
10:00 PM
Stadium IconHeart Health Park
Match Center
Tickets

As it stands, this would be a Western Conference Quarterfinal matchup between second-place Republic FC and seventh-place Rising. The result here could go a long way to determining whether that will materialize as Phoenix enters on its first two-game winning run of the season and looking to close the gap to the top six while Sacramento tries to hold off the challengers to its current position including Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, Oakland Roots SC and Memphis 901 FC. If Republic FC slips here, it makes next Wednesday’s clash with New Mexico United that much bigger.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. New Mexico United
Record: 16-7-3, 51pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 1st (61.9 points)
Max Points Available: 75pts

Magic Number: 2

Up Next: at DET (9/14)
+
Outlook: New Mexico picked up a victory in which it was more dominant than the 1-0 final score indicated against Miami FC. Combine it with Sacramento’s defeat in Charleston, and United is in position to claim a playoff berth this weekend as it heads to face Detroit City FC, and has upped its chances of a first-place finish.

New Mexico United Clinches a Playoff Place if:
1. New Mexico takes victory vs. Detroit City FC, moves to 54pts

2. New Mexico draws vs. Detroit City FC, moves to 52pts and clear of San Antonio FC on a maximum of 52pts via the head-to-head tiebreaker.
AND – Orange County SC fails to take victory vs. Rhode Island FC, maximum available points drops to 50pts.

3. New Mexico loses vs. Detroit City FC, remains on 51pts
AND – San Antonio FC fails to take victory vs. Oakland Roots SC, maximum available points drops to 50pts
AND - Orange County SC fails to take victory vs. Rhode Island FC, maximum available points drops to 50pts.
2. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 11-6-8, 41pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 2nd (60.0 points)
Max Points Available: 68pts

Magic Number: 12

Up Next: vs. PHX (9/14)
+
Outlook: Sacramento let a valuable point on the road slip away late in Charleston, and that's not only knocked Republic FC out of a projected first-place finish but added pressure to hold onto second. A win in this Saturday's game at home to Phoenix Rising would be huge both for position and confidence.
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 12-10-5, 41pts

Playoffs Odds: 93%

Projected Finish: 3rd (55.5 points)
Max Points Available: 62pts

Magic Number: 12

Up Next: vs. CHS (9/14)
+
Outlook: The Switchbacks have catapulted level on points with Sacramento after their third consecutive win. They’re looking like a lock to be in the playoffs once again as they get ready to take on another of the East’s powers in the Charleston Battery this weekend.
4. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 12-11-4, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 88%

Projected Finish: 5th (51.9 points)
Max Points Available: 61pts

Magic Number: 13

Up Next: vs. SA (9/14)
+
Outlook: Last weekend’s loss to North Carolina was a performance to forget for Roots, who conceded four goals in the first half for the second time this season. It’s not done much damage to their positions in the playoff race, though, and they can take a big step toward clinching a spot this weekend at home to San Antonio, which sits in the cutoff below the playoff line.
5. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 11-10-7, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 88%

Projected Finish: 4th (53.6 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number: 13

Up Next: vs. NC (9/14)
+
Outlook: Memphis couldn’t make the most of its chances against Hartford Athletic as visiting goalkeeper Renan Ribeiro put in a great performance, but it didn’t affect things much for 901 FC’s overall prospects. They’ll hope to be more clinical against North Carolina this weekend – if everything goes in their favor, they could be in second place by the end of the weekend.
6. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 10-8-9, 39pts

Playoffs Odds: 83%

Projected Finish: 6th (48.3 points)
Max Points Available: 60pts

Magic Number: 14

Up Next: vs. MB (9/14)
+
Outlook: Coleman Gannon’s equalizer in Tulsa was big for the Lights, earning a valuable point on the road in a game where they had opportunities but where a draw ended up feeling like a fair result. Getting back home this weekend to face a struggling Monterey Bay F.C. offers a good opportunity for the side to add another win and bolster their claim to a top-four position.
7. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 8-8-9, 33pts

Playoffs Odds: 64%

Projected Finish: 7th (40.4 points)
Max Points Available: 60pts

Magic Number: 20

Up Next: at SAC (9/14)
+
Outlook: Phoenix’s attack still isn’t that convincing, but its defense continues to pick up the slack. Rising hasn’t conceded in four consecutive games – the first time it’s done that since 2022 – and that’s put it in a far stronger position than it held going into a major test away at Sacramento Republic FC.
8. FC Tulsa
Record: 7-9-10, 31pts

Playoffs Odds: 56%

Projected Finish: 8th (39.6 points)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: 22

Up Next: vs. LOU (9/14)
+
Outlook: Tulsa would have given its playoff chances a major boost if it had held onto its lead against Las Vegas on Wednesday night. It did add a point to its total, but that means it needs to take something from this weekend’s clash with Louisville City FC or run the risk of being pulled back by one of the three teams currently three points behind them in the standings.
9. Orange County SC
Record: 8-14-4, 28pts

Playoffs Odds: 25%

Projected Finish: 11th (32.9 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. RI (9/14)
+
Outlook: Orange County was one of the teams boosted by Tulsa’s draw on Wednesday night. It has to start taking care of its own business, starting at home to Rhode Island FC on Saturday, but it could pull level with eighth place if Tulsa suffers defeat at home to Eastern Conference leader Louisville City FC earlier on Saturday night.
10. San Antonio FC
Record: 7-12-7, 28pt

Playoffs Odds: 30%

Projected Finish: 10th (36.3 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at OAK (9/14)
+
Outlook: San Antonio last took consecutive victories in the league in March, which is one of the reasons it finds itself in its current predicament. If it can go on the road and earn a second consecutive win in Northern California against Oakland Roots, Head Coach Alen Marcina’s side will be very much alive in the playoff race.
11. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 7-13-7, 28pts

Playoffs Odds: 38%

Projected Finish: 9th (38.7 points)
Max Points Available: 49pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at LV (9/14)
+
Outlook: Everything is moving in the wrong direction for Monterey Bay right now. They’re still in the hunt for a playoff spot, but they must get back in the win column soon, and with Las Vegas having been in action in midweek where they rallied for a draw in Tulsa, this is a game they need to take advantage of.
12. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 5-15-6, 21pts

Playoffs Odds: <1%

Projected Finish: 12th (23.7 points)
Max Points Available: 45pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at IND (9/14)
+
Outlook: Locomotive’s ability to be a spoiler for those chasing the playoffs was evident against Detroit City on Saturday. Le Rouge and others will be hoping El Paso can do something similar against Indy Eleven this Saturday.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Louisville City FC
Record: 19-5-2, 59pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 1st (75.7 points)
Max Points Available: 83pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at TUL (9/14)
+
Outlook: LouCity is officially into the playoffs for a 10th consecutive season and its next goal isn’t far away. With a win against FC Tulsa on Saturday night it would be guaranteed a top-three spot and at least one home game in the playoffs. as it moves toward the goal of its first Players’ Shield.

Louisville City Clinches a Top-Four spot if
1. LouCity wins vs. FC Tulsa, moves to 62 points.

2. LouCity draws vs. FC Tulsa, moves to 60 points
AND Indy Eleven fails to take victory against El Paso Locomotive FC, maximum drops to at least 59pts
OR Detroit City FC fails to take victory against New Mexico United, maximum drops to at least 58pts

3. LouCity loses vs. FC Tulsa, remains on 59pts, plus two of the three following results
a. Indy Eleven loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, maximum drops to 58pt
b. Detroit City FC fails to take victory against New Mexico United, maximum drops to at least 58pts
c. Birmingham Legion FC fails to take victory against the Tampa Bay Rowdies or Loudoun United FC, maximum drops to at least 57pts
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 16-4-8, 56pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 2nd (71.1 points)
Max Points Available: 74pts

Magic Number: 2

Up Next: at COS (9/14)
+
Outlook: The Battery were denied clinching a playoff berth by Southern Derby rival North Carolina FC’s romp past Oakland, but they’re now within range to get over the line this weekend against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC. It could also clinch a top-four spot if other results go their way over the week as well.

Charleston Battery Clinches a Playoff Place if:
1. Charleston takes victory vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC to move to 59pts
2. Charleston draws vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks to move to 57pts; Battery move clear of NCFC on maximum of 57pts via head-to-head tiebreakers
3. Charleston loses vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC to remain on 56pts
AND – North Carolina FC fails to take victory against Memphis 901 FC on Saturday, dropping NCFC’s maximum to at least 55pts
OR – Loudoun United FC loses vs. Birmingham Legion FC, dropping Loudoun’s maximum to 55pts
OR – Rhode Island FC loses vs. Orange County SC, dropping Rhode Island’s maximum to 55pts

Charleston Battery Clinch a Top-Four Position if:
1. Charleston Battery wins vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC to move to 59pts and clear of Birmingham Legion FC on a maximum of 59pts via the head-to-head tiebreaker.
AND - Indy Eleven fails to take victory vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, maximum drops to at least 59pts; Battery hold head-to-head tiebreaker
OR – Detroit City FC fails to take victory against New Mexico United, maximum drops to at least 58pts
3. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 12-8-7, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: 87%

Projected Finish: 3rd (53.9 points)
Max Points Available: 64pts

Magic Number: 15

Up Next: vs. PIT (9/14)
+
Outlook: The Rowdies are struggling for results right now, although their performance against Birmingham Legion on Wednesday night probably deserved better, and that’s likely left a top-two finish out of reach. Now they need to make sure they hold onto third place, but this Saturday’s game against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC is going to be a big test.
4. Detroit City FC
Record: 10-8-9, 39pts

Playoffs Odds: 76%

Projected Finish: 5th (46.9 points)
Max Points Available: 60pts

Magic Number: 19

Up Next: vs. NM (9/14)
+
Outlook: Le Rouge continued to edge toward a place in the playoffs with their scoreless draw in El Paso. They’ve got a five-point cushion to the teams below the playoff line, but it could get a lot more nerve-wracking if they can’t break their home winless run when New Mexico visits this Saturday.
5. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 11-11-5, 38pts

Playoffs Odds: 74%

Projected Finish: 6th (46.5 points)
Max Points Available: 59pts

Magic Number: 20

Up Next:at LDN (9/14)
+
Outlook: Legion gave their playoff chances a massive boost with victory on Wednesday night against Tampa Bay but faces another key game against Loudoun United on the road this weekend. If it can pick up a six-point week, however, they could be in the top four and sitting with as much as a seven-point advantage over the teams below the playoff line.
6. Indy Eleven
Record: 10-9-7, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 65%

Projected Finish: 8th (43.3 points)
Max Points Available: 61pts

Magic Number: 21

Up Next: vs. ELP (9/14)
+
Outlook: Indy is still projected to be the last team into the playoffs, but the Boys in Blue could just as easily finish in the top four if it can find a run of form. Getting all three points at home against El Paso Locomotive FC on Saturday is essential, and it would also be useful if Tampa Bay, Memphis, New Mexico and Birmingham earned results as well.
7. Rhode Island FC
Record: 8-6-13, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 76%

Projected Finish: 4th (49.8 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number: 21

Up Next: at OC (9/14)
+
Outlook: The projections still like Rhode Island’s chances a lot, but it also has a narrower road with only seven games left to play. Earning victory on the road at Orange County SC to rebound from its loss in Pittsburgh would be a good step forward, but OCSC is going to be battling hard as its playoff chances hang in the balance.
8. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 8-9-11, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 68%

Projected Finish: 6th (46.1 points)
Max Points Available: 53pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at TBR (9/14)
+
Outlook: The Hounds’ 10-game undefeated streak has given them momentum as well as moving the side above the playoff line. There can’t be any letdown, though, with only six games to go. This Saturday’s game against a Tampa Bay Rowdies side that needs to find a boost could be a big test, while the Hounds would definitely benefit if Birmingham Legion and Memphis 901 FC can get results against Loudoun United and North Carolina FC respectively.
9. Loudoun United FC
Record: 9-10-7, 34pts

Playoffs Odds: 43%

Projected Finish: 10th (41.1 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number: 24

Up Next: vs. BHM (9/14)
+
Outlook: Loudoun United still controls its destiny with eight games to go but needs to earn a result at home against Birmingham Legion this Saturday on home turf. With Legion coming in after a midweek victory that boosted their postseason chances, United requires exactly the same sort of result here.
10. North Carolina FC
Record: 8-9-9, 30pts

Playoffs Odds: 50%

Projected Finish: 9th (42.7 points)
Max Points Available: 57pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at MEM (9/14)
+
North Carolina revived its playoff chances with a thumping of Oakland on Saturday night and will be hoping for more of the same as it heads to Memphis 901 FC this weekend. It would also find Rhode Island dropping points to Orange County SC and the Tampa Bay Rowdies taking points off Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC very useful to its chances.
11. Hartford Athletic
Record: 8-12-7, 31pts

Playoffs Odds: 34%

Projected Finish: 11th (38.9 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at MIA (9/14)
+
Outlook: Hartford has Renan Ribeiro to thank for its point against Memphis 901 FC on Wednesday night, but that result essentially made Saturday’s visit to Miami FC a must-win. The Athletic might be undefeated in their last five outings, but they’re not going to be able to draw their way into the playoffs as their number of games remaining continues to dwindle.

Mathematically Eliminated: Miami FC

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Tag(s): Features  San Antonio FC  CO Spring Switchbacks  Orange County SC  Phoenix Rising FC  Sacramento Republic FC  FC Tulsa  Charleston Battery  Louisville City FC  Pittsburgh Riverhounds  Tampa Bay Rowdies  Las Vegas Lights FC  Birmingham Legion FC  North Carolina FC  Indy Eleven  Memphis 901 FC  El Paso Locomotive FC  New Mexico United  Loudoun United FC  Hartford Athletic  Oakland Roots SC  Detroit City FC  Monterey Bay F.C.  Rhode Island FC 

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