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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – September 18-22

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 09/16/24, 2:00PM EDT

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Top two clash in Western Conference before a key weekend around both playoff lines

Welcome to the latest edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs presented by Terminix, where we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2024 USL Championship Playoffs in October.

New Mexico United became the first team from the Western Conference to join Louisville City FC and the Charleston Battery in the East in clinching a playoff berth with victory on Wednesday night against Sacramento Republic FC. Now we’re set for a key weekend in which four of the five teams battling for a postseason spot square off, plus other key games in the battle for the postseason.

This season, we’re grateful to our friend John Morrissey at USL Tactics for providing the data for playoff projections. Now, here are some games to watch this weekend and an overview of where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Saturday, September 21
North Carolina FC
Indy Eleven
7:30 PM
Stadium IconWakeMed Soccer Park
Match Center
Tickets

North Carolina is in must-win territory after its defeat in Memphis, particularly in a game like this where it can gain ground on one of the teams above the playoff line in the East. Indy looked more like its mid-season self against El Paso this past weekend and has a seven-point cushion on NCFC as it arrives. A win would put the Boys in Blue on solid ground for the playoffs and a potential top-four finish.

Saturday, September 21
Monterey Bay F.C.
Orange County SC
10:00 PM
Stadium IconCardinale Stadium
Match Center
Tickets

The past weekend’s results in the Western Conference set us up with a race for two spots between five teams, with Monterey Bay and Orange County separated by only two points as the week begins. OCSC took a much-needed win to get back into eighth place on Saturday night, while Monterey Bay is winless in its last nine outings after a draw with Las Vegas. If Orange County finds a way to complete a season sweep of the series, it would be huge. If Monterey Bay earns victory, it could become even more chaotic.

Saturday, September 21
Las Vegas Lights FC
Sacramento Republic FC
10:30 PM
Stadium IconCashman Field
Match Center
Tickets

Republic FC’s defeat in New Mexico has set up a serious battle for the remaining three slots in the top four of the Western Conference with the Lights one of the teams in the mix to open the postseason at home. Sacramento still has a small edge in having at least one more game to play than the rest of its rivals with seven games remaining, but if the Lights can take victory at home and complete a series sweep against its well-regarded rival, it would pull Las Vegas within a point of Sacramento and open up a whole range of possibilities.

Saturday, September 21
Phoenix Rising FC
San Antonio FC
10:30 PM
Stadium IconPhoenix Rising Stadium at 38th St/Washington
Match Center
Tickets

You’d probably not have expected a matchup of the past two USL Championship title winners to be this important as to who gets into the playoffs and who misses out, but here we are. San Antonio is coming in with its first consecutive wins of the season to move even on points with Orange County and FC Tulsa. Phoenix’s loss in Sacramento meant it remained in a precarious spot only two points ahead of that trio of teams. If Rising wins, the pressure will drop a little further. If San Antonio wins, it could be above the playoff line with momentum to continue its postseason streak.

western conference

1. New Mexico United
Record: 17-8-3, 54pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 1st (63.5 points)
Max Points Available: 72pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. LDN (9/22)
+
Outlook: New Mexico’s victory against Republic FC not only clinched the club’s fifth postseason berth in six seasons but made the No. 1 seed United’s to lose over its final six games. It could clinch a top-four spot and assure itself of the first home playoff game in club history this weekend as well, if other results go United’s favor on Saturday night.

New Mexico United Clinches a Top-Four Finish if:
1. New Mexico takes victory vs. Loudoun United FC, moves to 57pts
AND – Oakland Roots SC fails to take victory vs. Hartford Athletic, dropping its maximum to at least 56pts
AND – Las Vegas Lights FC fails to take victory vs. Sacramento Republic FC, dropping its maximum to at least 56pts
AND – Phoenix Rising FC fails to take victory vs. San Antonio FC, dropping its maximum to at least 55pts
2. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 12-7-8, 44pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 2nd (59.7 points)
Max Points Available: 65pts

Magic Number: 9

Up Next: at LV (9/21)
+
Outlook: Republic FC’s loss in New Mexico means it can’t clinch a playoff berth this weekend and puts the pressure on to earn a result against Las Vegas this Saturday night at Cashman Field. If Sacramento earns all three points, it will be back on course for a top-two finish, but anything less would open the door for Colorado Springs to jump them and mean Republic FC would need to take advantage of its game in hand to regain the initiative.
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 13-10-5, 44pts

Playoffs Odds: 94%

Projected Finish: 3rd (55.9 points)
Max Points Available: 62pts

Magic Number: 9

Up Next: at ELP (9/21)
+
Outlook: The Switchbacks might have been the other big winner from Wednesday night’s victory by New Mexico as it kept them level-pegging with Sacramento in the race for second place. They’ll be looking for a fifth consecutive victory this Saturday night as they visit El Paso Locomotive FC, while Las Vegas and Republic FC playing to a draw would probably be the ideal result in the other key game that affects them directly.
4. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 12-10-7, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: 91%

Projected Finish: 4th (55.5 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number: 10

Up Next: vs. LOU (9/28)
+
Outlook: Memphis got the win it needed to jump into fourth and now will be scoreboard watching this weekend before it hosts Louisville City FC two Saturdays from now. Between now and then, Oakland Roots SC dropping points would help their chances of a top-four finish, while Sacramento’s defeat in New Mexico would probably make a draw between Republic FC and Las Vegas Lights the preferred outcome for 901 FC as it pursues a high seed.
5. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 10-8-10, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 83%

Projected Finish: 5th (48.6 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number: 13

Up Next: vs. SAC (9/21)
+
Outlook: The Lights’ clash on Saturday against Republic FC is going to be one of the games of the weekend, especially with Republic FC falling on Wednesday night against New Mexico United. If Las Vegas takes victory on home turf – as it did in Sacramento earlier this season – it would make the race for a top-four finish all the more intriguing.
6. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 12-12-4, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 82%

Projected Finish: 6th (48.1 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number: 13

Up Next: at HFD (9/21)
+
Outlook: Roots is still in a good position to be part of the playoffs despite its loss to San Antonio FC but it’s going to need to start putting points on the board before things get a tighter. This weekend’s east-coast trip to Hartford Athletic is going to be another test for the side.
7. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 8-9-9, 33pts

Playoffs Odds: 58%

Projected Finish: 8th (38.6 points)
Max Points Available: 57pts

Magic Number: 20

Up Next: vs. SA (9/21)
+
Outlook: There’s no shame in losing on the road to Sacramento, but that result combined with San Antonio FC’s win against Oakland makes the meeting between the past two Championship title winners a massive six-pointer. If Phoenix falls, it could end the weekend back below the playoff line. If it wins, it could have a five-point cushion with seven games to play.
8. Orange County SC
Record: 9-14-4, 28pts

Playoffs Odds: 29%

Projected Finish: 11th (35.0 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at MB (9/21)
+
Outlook: Orange County is back above the playoff line, just, thanks to Bryce Jamison’s winner and Colin Shutler’s goalkeeping heroics against Rhode Island. To stay there, they need to build off that result in a crucial six-pointer on Saturday way to Monterey Bay F.C.
9. FC Tulsa
Record: 7-10-10, 31pts

Playoffs Odds: 57%

Projected Finish:7th (39.2 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at RI (9/21)
+
Outlook: While Tulsa dropped below the playoff line this weekend, the projections still like its chances of being in the playoff field in the end. The next two road games might be crucial, however, with Rhode Island FC and Oakland Roots next weekend both in battles for position as well.
10. San Antonio FC
Record: 8-12-7, 31pts

Playoffs Odds: 33%

Projected Finish: 9th (38.3 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at PHX (9/21)
+
Outlook: There is life and hope for San Antonio thanks to Luis Solignac’s second consecutive game-winning goal. They’ve moved level on points with FC Tulsa and Orange County SC with seven games to go in the season. This Saturday’s game with Phoenix is crucial too, as San Antonio would jump past Rising with a victory.
11. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 7-13-8, 29pts

Playoffs Odds: 37%

Projected Finish: 10th (37.3 points)
Max Points Available: 47pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. OC (9/21)
+
Outlook: Monterey Bay picked up a point on Saturday night in Las Vegas, but that wasn’t good enough when other teams around them were winning. MBFC is going to be under big pressure to take its first win under Head Coach Jordan Stewart against Orange County SC this Saturday to potentially jump back above the playoff line.
12. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 5-16-6, 21pts

Playoffs Odds: <1%

Projected Finish: 12th (22.6 points)
Max Points Available: 42pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. COS (9/21)
+
Outlook: The lack of points for the teams in seventh and eighth place in the West means El Paso is still going to be mathematically alive a little longer, but Saturday’s defeat at Indy Eleven and its two late red cards was a sign that the postseason isn’t happening this year.

eastern conference

1. Louisville City FC
Record: 20-5-2, 59pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 1st (75.9 points)
Max Points Available: 83pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at DET (9/22)
+
Outlook: LouCity has earned at least one home playoff game after its win against FC Tulsa on Saturday night and would clinch a top-two finish regardless of other results if it takes victory on the road this Sunday against Detroit City. A win there would also continue LouCity’s pursuit of the Championship’s single-season wins record of 24, with the team currently four behind with seven games remaining.

Louisville City Clinches a Top-Two Finish if:
1. Louisville City FC wins vs. Detroit City FC, moves to 65pts, clear of the Tampa Bay Rowdies’ maximum available points total of 64pts

2. Louisville City FC draws vs. Detroit City FC, moves to 63pts
AND – Tampa Bay Rowdies fail to take victory vs. Charleston Battery, maximum available points drops to at least 62pts.

3. Louisville City FC loses vs. Detroit City FC, remains on 62pts
AND – Tampa Bay Rowdies lose vs. Charleston Battery, maximum available points drops to 61pts
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 16-5-8, 56pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 2nd (68.1 points)
Max Points Available: 71pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. TBR (9/21)
+
Outlook: The Battery clinched a playoff berth thanks to North Carolina FC’s defeat against Memphis 901 FC and now will continue their pursuit of a top-four finish, which could be achieved with a win this weekend as they host the third-place Tampa Bay Rowdies.

Charleston Battery Clinch a Top-Four Position if:
1. Charleston Battery wins vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies to move to 59pts
AND - Indy Eleven fails to take victory vs. North Carolina FC, maximum drops to at least 59pts; Battery hold head-to-head tiebreaker
OR – Detroit City FC fails to take victory against New Mexico United, maximum drops to at least 58pts
3. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 13-8-7, 46pts

Playoffs Odds: 89%

Projected Finish: 3rd (55.5 points)
Max Points Available: 64pts

Magic Number: 9

Up Next: at CHS (9/21)
+
Outlook: Everyone at the Rowdies can breathe a big sigh of relief thanks to Leo Fernandes’ late winner against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC. Tampa Bay now faces a serious test on the road against the Charleston Battery, but it managed to keep a four-point gap to the rest of the pack as it looks to secure a top-three finish.
4. Detroit City FC
Record: 11-8-9, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: 79%

Projected Finish: 4th (49.0 points)
Max Points Available: 60pts

Magic Number: 13

Up Next: vs. LOU (9/22)
+
Outlook: Detroit had a decent amount go right for it this weekend in its pursuit of a top-four finish. Not only did it pick up all three points and break its home winless run at Keyworth Stadium, potential rivals Rhode Island FC and Birmingham Legion both suffered defeats. Indy’s still lurking with a game in hand, but with a seven-point margin over the teams below the playoff line, Le Rouge are in good shape.
5. Indy Eleven
Record: 11-9-7, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 73%

Projected Finish: 7th (45.7 points)
Max Points Available: 61pts

Magic Number: 15

Up Next: at NC (9/21)
+
Outlook: Indy got the victory it needed at home to El Paso Locomotive and hopefully some attacking form to take into the stretch run. The projections still say the Boys in Blue are likely to head on the road to start the playoffs, but they can push everyone closer to the playoffs with a win on the road in North Carolina on Saturday.
6. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 11-12-5, 38pts

Playoffs Odds: 73%

Projected Finish: 6th (46.5 points)
Max Points Available: 56pts

Magic Number: 17

Up Next:vs. MIA (9/22)
+
Outlook: Legion stumbled against Loudoun United FC, but defeats to North Carolina and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC meant the damage wasn’t too severe. The side must take all three points at home to Miami on Sunday evening to keep up its chances of a home playoff game.
7. Rhode Island FC
Record: 8-7-13, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 73%

Projected Finish:5th (47.4 points)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: 18

Up Next: vs. TUL (9/21)
+
Outlook: Rhode Island got 28 games into its inaugural season before it lost consecutive games for the first time, which is a heck of a feat, but also has put the side under a little pressure to respond. Facing the current No. 8-side in the West on Saturday should be a heck of a scrap, but RIFC needs something to create separation from Pittsburgh.
8. Loudoun United FC
Record: 10-10-7, 37pts

Playoffs Odds:51%

Projected Finish: 9th (43.1 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number: 18

Up Next: at NM (9/22)
+
Outlook: Remember how we said Loudoun United needed its attack to liven up? It delivered and then some against Birmingham for a massive result at Segra Field. United is now projected to be neck-and-neck with Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC for the final spot in the playoffs, and if it can get a win or a draw on the road to Western Conference leader New Mexico United, it’ll be a boost.
9. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 8-10-11, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 58%

Projected Finish: 8th (44.0 points)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. BHM (9/28)
+
Outlook: The Hounds hadn’t lost after leading at halftime in two years – a run of 24 consecutive games – before Saturday’s defeat at Tampa Bay. That’s put the side under huge pressure with only five games to go. With a bye this week, it’ll be hoping for defeats for each of Birmingham, Loudoun and Rhode Island.
10. Hartford Athletic
Record: 9-12-7, 34pts

Playoffs Odds: 37%

Projected Finish: 10th (41.5 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. OAK (9/21)
+
Outlook: Athletic got the job done in Miami to jump up a place in the standings but must keep winning from here to make up a three-point gap with six games to play. The good news? Oakland Roots SC hasn’t had the best of times on the East coast so far this season.
11. North Carolina FC
Record: 8-10-9, 30pts

Playoffs Odds: 36%

Projected Finish: 11th (40.9 points)
Max Points Available: 54pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. IND (9/21)
+
Outlook: Saturday’s loss in Memphis was a big step back for NCFC’s playoff chances. They must rebound at home on Saturday against Indy Eleven and hope to see some other results – like Loudoun, Rhode Island and Birmingham all losing – go their way over the weekend.

Mathematically Eliminated: Miami FC

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Tag(s): Features  San Antonio FC  CO Spring Switchbacks  Orange County SC  Phoenix Rising FC  Sacramento Republic FC  FC Tulsa  Charleston Battery  Louisville City FC  Pittsburgh Riverhounds  Tampa Bay Rowdies  Las Vegas Lights FC  Birmingham Legion FC  North Carolina FC  Indy Eleven  Memphis 901 FC  El Paso Locomotive FC  New Mexico United  Loudoun United FC  Hartford Athletic  Oakland Roots SC  Detroit City FC  Monterey Bay F.C.  Rhode Island FC 

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