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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – October 15-19

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 10/15/24, 11:00AM EDT

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It’s crunch time in the Eastern Conference, while the West’s final three positions could be clinched by the end of the weekend


Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and Loudoun United FC will square off on Saturday evening in the pivotal game this week in the race for the final two spots in the Eastern Conference playoff field. | Photo courtesy Chris Cowger / Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC

Welcome to the latest edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs presented by Terminix, where we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2024 USL Championship Playoffs in October.

The battle in the Eastern Conference continues to rise with five teams in contention for the final two spots in the postseason as the trio of Indy Eleven, Rhode Island FC and the Tampa Bay Rowdies look to seal their positions this weekend. In the West, meanwhile, Orange County’s midweek victory set up the opportunity for the last three postseason berths to be claimed this weekend.

This season, we’re grateful to our friend John Morrissey at USL Tactics for providing the data for playoff projections. Now, here are some games to watch this week and an overview of where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Saturday, October 19
Loudoun United FC
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
6:00 PM
Stadium IconSegra Field
Match Center
Tickets

Just as last weekend’s action in the Eastern Conference pivoted around a crucial six-pointer – which left us with four teams tied on 42 points with two games to play and one more with a game in hand still in the hunt – this Saturday night’s action centers around Loudoun United and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC. A victory for either would put them in prime position to seal a berth on the final day of the season, but if the teams end all square it would open the door for both to potentially miss out with Birmingham Legion FC, North Carolina FC and Hartford Athletic all waiting to pounce.

Saturday, October 19
San Antonio FC
Louisville City FC
8:30 PM
Stadium IconToyota Field
Match Center
Tickets

At the start of the season, this 2022 USL Championship Final rematch looked poised to be crucial in the Players’ Shield race. Instead, while Louisville City FC is chasing history in the form of the single-season record for regular season wins, this is a fight for San Antonio FC’s playoff life. The hosts have come through with seven points in the past three games, but following Orange County SC’s victory on Wednesday night, SAFC has a three-point margin to make up with two games to go. That means a defeat at home to LouCity could bring the curtain down on San Antonio’s season if results elsewhere don’t go in their favor.

Saturday, October 19
Phoenix Rising FC
Memphis 901 FC
10:30 PM
Stadium IconPhoenix Rising Stadium at 38th St/Washington
Match Center
Tickets

There is the obvious subplot of Panos Armenakas’ prospective return to Phoenix Rising Stadium with Memphis 901 FC at hand, but this is also a critical game for both Rising and 901 FC in terms of positioning. Memphis has booked its playoff spot but sits in fifth place in the standings, and if it fails to take victory against Phoenix it could be frozen out of a top-four spot depending on results elsewhere. Rising, meanwhile, can seal its place in the postseason with a victory but it could also move level on points with 901 FC as well, setting up a battle for position on the final day of the regular season for seeding.

Western Conference

1. New Mexico United
Record: 18-10-4, 58pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 1st (60.2 points)
Max Points Available: 64pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at OC (10/19)
+
Outlook: New Mexico locked up the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference on Saturday night but still has a key role to play in deciding which clubs will end up as its potential opponent as the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference Quarterfinals when it visits Orange County SC on Saturday. OCSC could be in position to clinch its postseason berth with a victory, should it come through Wednesday night’s visit to El Paso with all three points.
2. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 13-8-11, 50pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 3rd (52.9 points)
Max Points Available: 56pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. OAK (10/19)
+
Outlook: The Lights not only have the inside track to second place in the West after their win in Birmingham but could clinch a top-two finish this weekend. A victory against Oakland Roots SC would secure at least a top-four finish, and should Sacramento Republic FC fail to take victory against El Paso Locomotive FC earlier on Saturday night, the Lights would clinch second place due to holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Republic FC.

Las Vegas Lights FC Clinches a Top-Four Finish if:

1. Las Vegas Lights FC wins vs. Oakland Roots SC, moves to 53pts

2. Las Vegas Lights FC draws vs. Oakland Roots SC, moves to 51pts
- AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory at Phoenix Rising FC, maximum drops to 49pts
- OR Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC fails to take victory at Monterey Bay F.C., maximum drops to 50pts

3. Las Vegas Lights FC loses vs. Oakland Roots SC, remains on 50pts
- AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory at Phoenix Rising FC, maximum drops to 49pts

Las Vegas Lights FC Clinches a Top-Two Finish if:

4. Las Vegas Lights FC wins vs. Oakland Roots SC, moves to 53pts
- AND Sacramento Republic FC fails to take victory at El Paso Locomotive FC, maximum drops to 53pts; Las Vegas holds head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0-0)
3. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 13-9-10, 49pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 2nd (53.2 points)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at ELP (10/19)
+
Republic FC missed out on clinching a top-four spot on Saturday night after its draw against Memphis 901 FC, but can ensure a home playoff game to start the playoffs if it takes victory on the road against El Paso Locomotive this Saturday night. A draw combined with Memphis or Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC dropping points would also provide an avenue to a top-four finish.

Sacramento Republic FC Clinches Top-Four finish if:
1. Sacramento Republic FC wins at El Paso Locomotive FC, moves to 52pts

2. Sacramento Republic FC draws at El Paso Locomotive FC, moves to 50pts
- AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory at Phoenix Rising FC, maximum drops to 49pts
- OR Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at Monterey Bay F.C., maximum drops to 49pts

3. Sacramento Republic FC loses at El Paso Locomotive FC, remains on 49pts
- AND Memphis 901 FC loses at Phoenix Rising FC, maximum drops to 48pts
4. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 13-12-7, 46pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 4th (49.4 points)
Max Points Available: 52ts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at MB (10/19)
+
Outlook: The Switchbacks had a rough Week 32, but they are still within sight of clinching a home playoff game. If Colorado Springs takes victory on the road against Monterey Bay F.C. on Saturday night, should Memphis 901 FC fail to take victory against Phoenix Rising FC and Sacramento Republic FC earn at least a draw in its contest against El Paso Locomotive FC, the Switchbacks will be clear of Memphis due to holding the head-to-head tiebreaker in their series.

Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC Clinches Top-Four finish if

1. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC wins at Monterey Bay F.C., moves to 49pts
- AND Sacramento Republic FC wins or draws at El Paso Locomotive FC, moves to at least 50pts
- AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory at Phoenix Rising FC, maximum drops to at least 49pts; Colorado Springs holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1).
5. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 12-11-9, 45pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 5th (49.2 points)
Max Points Available: 53pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at PHX (10/19)
+
Outlook: Memphis is back into the postseason after its draw against Sacramento Republic FC on Saturday night but needs things to fall its way to get a shot at a top-four finish and home playoff opener. Taking a victory against Phoenix Rising FC on Saturday night will be a challenge, but if 901 FC earns that result and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC fails to take a win on the road at Monterey Bay F.C., the sides would flip-flop positions going to the final weekend of the regular season.
6. Orange County SC
Record: 12-14-6, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: 81%

Projected Finish: 8th (43.0 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: 3

Up Next: vs. NM (10/19)
+
Outlook: Orange County’s fourth victory in the past six outings on Wednesday night against El Paso Locomotive FC moved the 2021 title winners within range of clinching a postseason spot this Saturday night. OCSC will clinch its spot if it takes victory at home to New Mexico United and could also earn its spot if its result matches that of San Antonio FC against Louisville City FC earlier on Saturday night.

Orange County SC Clinches a Playoff Berth if:

1. Orange County SC wins vs. New Mexico United, moves to 45pts

2. Orange County draws vs. New Mexico United, moves to 43pts
- AND San Antonio FC fails to take victory vs. Louisville City FC, maximum drops to 42pts

3. Orange County SC loses vs. New Mexico United, remains on 42pts
- AND San Antonio FC loses vs. Louisville City FC, maximum drops to 41pts
7. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 11-12-9, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: 83%

Projected Finish: 6th (43.8 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: 3

Up Next: vs. MEM (10/19)
+
Outlook: Phoenix’s six-point week on the road against New Mexico and Oakland has set it up to clinch a playoff spot this weekend, which could theoretically happen right at kickoff against Memphis 901 FC should San Antonio FC lose to Louisville City FC. Rising is guaranteed to be in with a win, however, while a draw would be enough if San Antonio fails to take victory against LouCity.

Phoenix Rising FC Clinches a Playoff Berth if:

1. Phoenix Rising FC wins vs. Memphis 901 FC, moves to 45pts

2. Phoenix Rising FC draws vs. Memphis 901 FC, moves to 43pts
- AND San Antonio FC fails to take victory vs. Louisville City FC, maximum drops to 42pts

3. Phoenix Rising FC loses vs. Memphis 901 FC, remains on 42pts
- AND San Antonio FC loses vs. Louisville City FC, maximum drops to 41pts
8. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 12-15-5, 41pts

Playoffs Odds: 82%

Projected Finish: 7th (43.6 points)
Max Points Available: 47pts

Magic Number: 4

Up Next: @ LV (10/19)
+
Outlook: Roots’ downturn in form has arrived at the worst moment, but Oakland can still clinch a postseason berth this weekend as it visits Las Vegas Lights FC. A win or a draw at Cashman Field could be enough for Roots to get back into the playoffs with a game to spare if San Antonio either draws or loses against Louisville City FC on home turf.

Oakland Roots SC Clinches a Playoff Berth if:
1. Oakland Roots SC wins at Las Vegas Lights FC, moves to 44pts
- AND San Antonio FC fails to take victory vs. Louisville City FC, maximum drops to 42pts

2. Oakland Roots SC draws at Las Vegas Lights FC, moves to 42pts
- AND San Antonio FC loses vs. Louisville City FC, maximum drops to 41
9. San Antonio FC
Record: 10-14-8, 38pts

Playoffs Odds: 30%

Projected Finish: 9th (39.9 points)
Max Points Available: 44pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. LOU (10/19)
+
Outlook: San Antonio’s path to the playoffs narrowed sharply with Orange County SC’s victory on Wednesday night, making Saturday’s game at home against Louisville City FC almost a must-win. SAFC does have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Oakland Roots SC, which is now its target in the No. 8 slot, but if the 2022 title winners fail to take victory their pursuit of the playoff spot could end before the final game of the campaign.
10. FC Tulsa
Record: 8-13-11, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 22%

Projected Finish:10th (37.8 points)
Max Points Available: 41pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. HFD (10/19)
+
Outlook: : Tulsa has one path to the playoffs following Orange County’s victory in midweek. It would need to win its last two games against Hartford Athletic and Monterey Bay F.C., hope Oakland Roots SC loses both of its remaining games, and hope San Antonio drops points in each of its final two games to end on a maximum of 40pts. If that happens, Tulsa gets in with a superior PPG vs. in-conference opponents mark of 1.27 to Roots on 1.09 after the sides each took one win with an even goal differential against each other in the regular season.

Mathematically Eliminated: Monterey Bay F.C., El Paso Locomotive FC

Eastern Conference

1. Louisville City FC
Record: 23-6-3, 72pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 1st (76.2 points)
Max Points Available: 78pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ SA (10/19)
+
Outlook: Louisville City will continue its pursuit of history as it seeks to equal the single-season record for regular season wins on Saturday night, but the Players’ Shield winner will have the three teams who are yet to clinch their postseason berths above the playoff line in the Western Conference rooting for them as they visit San Antonio. A LouCity victory in the rematch of the 2022 USL Championship Final could bring San Antonio’s season to an end if other results go the wrong way for SAFC this week.
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 17-6-9, 60pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 2nd (64.3 points)
Max Points Available: 66pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. RI (10/19)
+
Outlook: Charleston’s loss in Pittsburgh didn’t change anything for the defending Eastern Conference title holders, given they’re locked into the No. 2 seed. With two home games to close out the campaign starting with Rhode Island FC on Saturday, though, we’ll see if the side gives its home support something to cheer for as it continues to prep for the postseason.
3. Detroit City FC
Record: 13-8-11, 50pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 3rd (52.2 points)
Max Points Available: 56pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. MIA (10/19)
+
Outlook: With no-one between third and sixth taking victory over the weekend, Detroit City remained in good position and could seal a top-four finish this weekend if it picks up victory at home to Miami FC should results elsewhere go Le Rouge’s way.

Detroit City FC Clinches a Top-Four Finish if:

1. Detroit City FC wins vs. Miami FC, moves to 53pts; moves clear of Rhode Island FC on maximum of 53pts via head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
- AND Indy Eleven fails to take victory vs. Birmingham Legion FC, maximum drops to 52pts
- OR Tampa Bay Rowdies fail to take victory vs. North Carolina FC, maximum drops to 53pts; Detroit holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)

2. Detroit City FC draws vs. Miami FC, moves to 51pts
- AND Indy Eleven loses vs. Birmingham Legion FC, maximum drops to 51pts; Detroit holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
- AND Rhode Island FC fails to take victory at Charleston Battery, maximum drops to 51pts; Detroit holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
4. Indy Eleven
Record: 13-10-9, 48pts

Playoffs Odds: 88%

Projected Finish: 5th (50.2 points)
Max Points Available: 54pts

Magic Number: 1

Up Next: vs. BHM (10/19)
+
Outlook: Indy moved within a point of clinching a postseason berth with its draw against Detroit City FC, but it will be hoping to pick up all three points at home to Birmingham Legion on Saturday night to keep its drive for a top-four position on track. With a loss to Legion, Indy could still get in, but it would require a combination of results elsewhere to go in their favor with Legion’s maximum set to remain on 48pts with victory on the road.

Indy Eleven Clinches a Playoff Berth if:

1. Indy Eleven wins vs. Birmingham Legion FC, moves to 51pts

2. Indy Eleven draws vs. Birmingham Legion FC, moves to 49pts

3. Indy Eleven loses vs. Birmingham Legion FC, remains on 48pts
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and Loudoun United FC play to a draw, dropping each club’s maximum to 46pts
- AND North Carolina FC fails to take victory at Tampa Bay Rowdies, maximum drops to 46pts
- OR Hartford Athletic fails to take victory at FC Tulsa, maximum drops to 47pts

4. Indy Eleven loses vs. Birmingham Legion FC, remains on 48pts
- AND Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC loses at Loudoun United, maximum drops to 45pts
- AND North Carolina FC fails to take victory at Tampa Bay Rowdies, maximum drops to 46pts
- AND Hartford Athletic fails to take victory at FC Tulsa, maximum drops to 47pts

5. Indy Eleven loses vs. Birmingham Legion FC, remains on 48pts
- AND Loudoun United FC loses vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, maximum drops to 45pts
- AND North Carolina FC fails to take victory at Tampa Bay Rowdies, maximum drops to 46pts
- AND Hartford Athletic fails to take victory at FC Tulsa, maximum drops to 47pts
5. Rhode Island FC
Record: 11-7-14, 47pts

Playoffs Odds: 87%

Projected Finish:4th (50.7 points)
Max Points Available: 53pts

Magic Number: 2

Up Next: @ CHS (10/19)
+
Outlook: Rhode Island remains in control of its path to the playoffs and a win against the Charleston Battery would secure the first-year club’s berth. There are other routes available thanks to the logjam in the lower half of the standings should RIFC draw or lose at Patriots Point, but the visitors will be looking for all three points as it pursues a top-four finish

Rhode Island FC Clinches a Playoff Berth if:

1. Rhode Island FC wins at Charleston Battery, moves to 50pts

2. Rhode Island FC draws at Charleston Battery, moves to 48pts, and three of five additional scenarios
- Hartford Athletic fails to take victory at FC Tulsa, maximum drops to 47pts
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC fails to take victory at Loudoun United FC, maximum drops to 46pts
- Loudoun United FC fails to take victory vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, maximum drops to 46pts
- North Carolina FC fails to take victory at Tampa Bay Rowdies, maximum drops to 46pts
- Birmingham Legion FC fails to take victory at Indy Eleven, maximum drops to 46pts

3. Rhode Island FC loses at Charleston Battery, remains on 47pts, and three of four additional scenarios
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC fails to take victory at Loudoun United FC, maximum drops to 46pts
- Loudoun United FC fails to take victory vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, maximum drops to 46pts
- North Carolina FC fails to take victory at Tampa Bay Rowdies, maximum drops to 46pts
- Birmingham Legion FC fails to take victory at Indy Eleven, maximum drops to 46pts
6. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 13-11-7, 46pts

Playoffs Odds: 86%

Projected Finish: 6th (48.9 points)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: 3

Up Next: vs. NC (10/19)
+
Outlook: The Tampa Bay Rowdies have moved to a win and you’re in scenario this weekend against North Carolina FC, and still have a path to a top-four finish if they sweep victories in each of their final three games. There’s also a path to clinching a postseason berth for the Rowdies with a draw with the fact their matchup this weekend is against North Carolina – one of the teams they’d need to drop points in that scenario – playing into their hands.

Tampa Bay Rowdies Clinch a Playoff Berth if:

1. Tampa Bay Rowdies win vs. North Carolina FC, move to 49pts

2. Tampa Bay Rowdies draw vs. North Carolina FC, move to 47pts; North Carolina’s max drops to 46pts AND two of four additional scenarios
- Hartford Athletic loses at FC Tulsa, maximum drops to 46pts
- Loudoun United FC fails to take victory vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, maximum drops to 46pts
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC fails to take victory vs. Loudoun United FC, maximum drops to 46pts
- Birmingham Legion FC fails to take victory at Indy Eleven, maximum drops to 46pts
7. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 10-10-12, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: 66%

Projected Finish: 8th (44.6 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ LDN (10/19)
+
Outlook: The Hounds saw basically everything fall their way this weekend to get back above the playoff line with their win against Charleston. That sets up this Saturday’s six-pointer against Loudoun United, which also enters on 42 points with two games to play. The winner of this contest puts one foot in the playoffs and will be the game everyone else will be paying close attention to on Saturday evening.
10. Loudoun United FC
Record: 11-12-9, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: 49%

Projected Finish: 9th (44.4 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. PIT (10/19)
+
Outlook: The season is effectively on the line for Loudoun United on Saturday at home to Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC. A victory would keep United in control of its destiny going to the final game of the season, and potentially put it above the playoff line. A loss would leave Loudoun in a very tight spot and in need of a lot to go its way to get in. As such, it’s easily the biggest league game in club history.
8. North Carolina FC
Record: 11-12-9, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: 66%

Projected Finish: 7th (45.0 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ TBR (10/19)
+
Outlook: NNorth Carolina’s defeat at Hartford Athletic pulled it back into the pack battling for the final two positions in the playoffs, and it faces two tricky games to close the season against a Tampa Bay Rowdies side that while struggling for form knows it will be in with a win on Saturday, and a Las Vegas Lights side that is closing on second place in the West. NCFC will be looking for a win and keeping a close eye on the scoreboard like everyone else around the line in the East.
9. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 12-14-6, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: 36%

Projected Finish: 10th (44.3 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ IND (10/19)
+
Outlook: Legion is in a tight spot when it comes to continuing its playoff streak after Sunday’s loss to Las Vegas, and it’s going to need to turn its form around against Indy if it’s going to be above the playoff line going to the final game of the season. Birmingham has lost two in a row to the Boys in Blue – including a 1-0 loss at home in June – and has lost each of its last two visits to Michael A. Carroll Stadium as well.
11. Hartford Athletic
Record: 11-13-7, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 34%

Projected Finish: 11th (42.0 points)
Max Points Available: 49pts

Magic Number: 9

Up Next: @ TUL (10/19)
+
Outlook: Yes, Hartford is in 11th place, but it’s got a Magic Number while the four teams above it do not. That’s because Athletic has a game in hand, and if it wins out, it gets into the playoffs. Adding another three points to last weekend’s win against North Carolina FC when the side visits Tulsa this Saturday night keeps things in Hartford’s control.

Mathematically Eliminated: Miami FC

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Tag(s): Features  San Antonio FC  CO Spring Switchbacks  Orange County SC  Phoenix Rising FC  Sacramento Republic FC  FC Tulsa  Charleston Battery  Louisville City FC  Pittsburgh Riverhounds  Tampa Bay Rowdies  Las Vegas Lights FC  Birmingham Legion FC  North Carolina FC  Indy Eleven  Memphis 901 FC  New Mexico United  Loudoun United FC  Hartford Athletic  Oakland Roots SC  Race to the Playoffs  Detroit City FC  Monterey Bay F.C.  Rhode Island FC 

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