Orange County SC put itself on the verge of a berth in the 2024 USL Championship Playoffs on Wednesday night with a 2-0 victory against El Paso Locomotive FC at Southwest University Park that ran the club’s current undefeated streak to six games.

The 2021 title winners are now only three points from clinching a playoff spot, which could occur this Saturday night when they host New Mexico United at Championship Soccer Stadium for Fiesta de Fútbol night.

The club’s four wins over the past six games make up one-third of OCSC’s overall win total this season. It’s been a bumpy ride with the midseason departure of Head Coach Morten Karlsen and a run of five consecutive games in which the side didn’t find the net from late July to late August.

So, what’s been the key to the turnaround that has pushed the side back into the playoff picture? Here are four elements that have been key.

1. SHUTOUTS BY SHUTLER

To put it bluntly, there isn’t any way this happens without Colin Shutler being in the best form of his career. Prior to OCSC’s 1-0 win against Rhode Island FC, the 26-year-old had been having an average season between the sticks – his goalscoring heroics against Sacramento Republic FC to open the campaign notwithstanding. Shutler’s Goals Prevented mark was an even 0.0 – 34 goals conceded on 34 Expected Goals on Target – and his save percentage sat at 68.8 percent with six shutouts.

Over the past six games, Shutler’s been on a heater. He’s posted five shutouts, sure, but he’s also posted a -3.61 Goals Prevented mark on a save percentage of 94.7 percent. He earned September’s Player of the Month award in large part due to OCSC’s fans stuffing the ballot box, but it was a deserved honor. Orange County has been outshot 77-61 over the past six games, but Shutler and his back line have closed the door on opponents.

2. GETTING THE JUMP

It’s one thing for Shutler and OCSC’s defense to have been in stellar form but the side has also made positive starts to games which have led to the side having leads to defend. Over the past six games, OCSC has scored five goals in the opening 32 minutes of games out of eight goals overall in the current streak.

Orange County hasn’t been close to the hottest team in attack since mid-September, but it has struggled to form comebacks over the course of the campaign. OCSC ranks tied for 19th this season with only five points gained from losing positions this season, which is why getting out in front early has been a central part of the current run of form.

3. ETHAN ZUBAK’S HEATING UP

There was high expectation for SoCal striker Ethan Zubak when he arrived in Orange County after most recently competing for Nashville SC in Major League Soccer, and for most of the season those didn’t come to fruition. Now, however, the 25-year-old has found his rhythm in front of goal with four goals and one assist in the past four games to give the side the goals it needs.

Maybe most importantly, Zubak is providing the opening goal of the game. His finish in the 16th minute on Wednesday night against El Paso from a beautiful assist from 18-year-old star Bryce Jamison was his fourth game-opening goal this season as he reached double-digit finishes for the campaign. That’s twice as many as any other player in OCSC’s squad in league play, and a very positive sign as the postseason approaches.

4. BREAKS OF THE GAME

If you go by Expected Goals metrics, Orange County is overdelivering in the points column.  During its six-game undefeated run, the side is overperforming a below-average Expected Goals mark of 5.24xG compared to an Expected Goals Against mark of 6.24xG. According to American Soccer Analysis’ data, that puts OCSC at an Expected Points mark of 7.68xP over the last six games.

But where the difference lies – in addition to Shutler’s heroics – is OCSC’s opponents have simply gone cold in front of net when they’ve faced them, while Head Coach Danny Stone’s side has been more efficient with its finishing. Orange County’s Expected Goals on Target mark – which measures post-shot data – is at 5.78xGOT, while its opponents have registered only 4.61xGOT, a sizeable drop. Those are the breaks that can turn a good run of form into a great one, which is where Orange County finds itself with two games to go in the season.