skip navigation

USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – October 23-26

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 10/21/24, 4:25PM EDT

Share

The final spots in the Eastern Conference are up for grabs, while out West three of the top four slots will be claimed on the final day of the season


A top-four finish in the Western Conference is within reach of Sacramento Republic FC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC as they square off on Saturday night at Heart Health Park. | Photo courtesy Isaiah J. Downing / Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC

Welcome to the latest edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs presented by Terminix, where we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2024 USL Championship Playoffs in October.

Going into the final week, all the slots in the West are secured, while Rhode Island FC is going to cross the finish line at some point this week regardless of the results around the league. The midweek game between the Tampa Bay Rowdies and Hartford Athletic has major implications for the remaining three spots in the East, however, and could set up a dramatic final day of the season on Saturday night.

This season, we’re grateful to our friend John Morrissey at USL Tactics for providing the data for playoff projections. Now, here are some games to watch this weekend and an overview of where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Wednesday, October 23
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Hartford Athletic
7:30 PM
Stadium IconIMG Academy -Soccer Stadium
Match Center
Tickets

The Tampa Bay Rowdies haven’t clinched a playoff place after a fourth consecutive defeat on Saturday evening against North Carolina FC, but they do have a useful loophole available to them as they host Hartford Athletic. With the Rowdies having earned victory against Hartford earlier this season at Trinity Health Stadium, a draw would earn Tampa Bay the head-to-head tiebreaker in the series, and clinch a spot in the playoffs, since no-one else with a game to go can finish on 47 points. If Hartford wins to move level with the Rowdies on points, however, it takes everything to the final game of the season where the trapdoor would be present for both clubs as they try to grab a spot for the postseason.

Saturday, October 26
North Carolina FC
Las Vegas Lights FC
7:00 PM
Stadium IconWakeMed Soccer Park
Match Center
Tickets

There’s set to be plenty on the line for both North Carolina FC and Las Vegas Lights FC when they meet to close the season, with NCFC’s playoff chances at stake as well as which seed the Lights will take in the top four of the West. North Carolina will be paying close attention to the contest between Tampa Bay and Hartford and hoping for the Rowdies to earn a result, in which case it would be a simple case of win and you’re in. Las Vegas, meanwhile, is set to finish in the top four due to the contest between Sacramento Republic FC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, but if they earn all three points it would guarantee the No. 2 seed ahead of any other rival before the late kickoffs.

Saturday, October 26
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
El Paso Locomotive FC
7:00 PM
Stadium IconHighmark Stadium
Match Center
Tickets

The one thing we think we can confidently say is if Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC wins against El Paso Locomotive FC, it will be in the playoffs. In the case of a three-way tie alongside Rhode Island FC and North Carolina FC, the Hounds don’t have the head-to-head tiebreakers over both of its rivals, Pittsburgh and North Carolina drew twice, but they have the best points-per-game mark against in-conference opponents of the three – 1.5 ppg, compared to Rhode Island’s 1.41ppg and North Carolina’s 1.27ppg – which would put them on top of the trio in any three-way scenario. But El Paso has already proven it’s ready to be a spoiler during this run-in despite being mathematically eliminated and is likely to want to go through the final game of their campaign in a positive manner, which means the Hounds are going to need to be sharp to get the result they need.

Saturday, October 26
Sacramento Republic FC
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
10:00 PM
Stadium IconHeart Health Park
Match Center
Tickets

Sacramento Republic FC’s clash with Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC could end up as a playoff for which side starts the postseason at home, and which starts on the road. The X-factor in that is how Memphis 901 FC fares on the road against New Mexico United. Should 901 FC fail to take victory then both Sacramento and Colorado Springs will be playing for seeding knowing they’ll both be at home to start the playoffs. If 901 FC wins, however – which theoretically would be confirmed around halftime of this contest – then it could make for a very interesting second half. Republic FC holds the head-to-head tiebreaker after winning in Colorado Springs earlier this season, which is the other subplot, meaning the impetus to win could swing toward the Switchbacks with Sacramento potentially taking aim at a top-two finish.

Western Conference

1. New Mexico United
Record: 18-10-5, 59pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 1st (59.9 points)
Max Points Available: 62pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. MEM (10/26)
+
Outlook: New Mexico is locked into the No. 1 seed, but it has a big role to play in how the rest of the top four seeds shake out this weekend hosting Memphis 901 FC. If New Mexico wins or draws against Memphis, it locks 901 FC into the No. 5 seed as Memphis doesn’t hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over either Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC or Sacramento Republic FC. A win for Memphis, however, could push 901 FC as high as the No. 2 seed pending results elsewhere.
2. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 13-9-11, 50pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 2nd (51.2 points)
Max Points Available: 53pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at NC (10/26)
+
Outlook: The Lights missed out on the chance to clinch a top-two finish as their 11-game home undefeated streak came to an end against Oakland Roots, but thanks to results elsewhere, they’re set to host a playoff game and would still claim the No. 2 seed with a win against North Carolina FC. The Lights would also clinch a top-four position with a draw in North Carolina, given only one of Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC or Sacramento Republic FC would be able to pass them due to their head-to-head matchup, and if the Lights fall and Sacramento Republic FC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC play to a draw, Las Vegas’ points-per-game mark of 1.59ppg would hold it inside the top four.

Las Vegas Lights FC Clinches a Top-Four Finish if:

1. Las Vegas Lights FC draws at North Carolina FC, ends on 51pts
- AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory at New Mexico United, ends on 49pts
- OR Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC fails to take victory at Sacramento Republic FC, ends on 50pts
- OR Sacramento Republic FC fails to take victory vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, ends on 50pts

2. Las Vegas Lights FC loses vs. Oakland Roots SC, remains on 50pts
- AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory at Phoenix Rising FC, ends on 49pts
- OR Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC wins at Sacramento Republic FC, Republic FC ends on 49pts
- OR Sacramento Republic FC wins vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, Switchbacks end on 49pts
- OR Sacramento Republic FC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC play to a draw, each end on 50pts

3. Las Vegas Lights FC loses vs. Oakland Roots SC, remains on 50pts
- AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory at Phoenix Rising FC, maximum drops to 49pts

Las Vegas Lights FC Clinches a Top-Two Finish if:

4. Las Vegas Lights FC wins vs. North Carolina FC, ends on 53pts

5. Las Vegas Lights FC draws vs. North Carolina FC, ends on 51pts
- AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory against New Mexico United, ends on 49pts
- AND Sacramento Republic FC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC play to a draw, each end on 50pts
3. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 13-10-10, 49pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 3rd (50.9 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. COS (10/26)
+
Outlook: Republic FC missed out on the chance to move back into second place with its defeat in El Paso, and now needs a win against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC to be certain of a top-four finish as a draw or a loss could drop it into fifth place to close the regular season in the case of a three-way tie alongside Colorado Springs and Las Vegas Lights FC, with Republic FC’s points-per-game mark set to finish third out of the trio in that scenario. At the same time, a win could move Republic FC into the No. 2 seed should Las Vegas come up short in its east-coast trip to North Carolina FC.

Sacramento Republic FC Clinches Top-Four finish if:
1. Sacramento Republic FC wins vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, ends on 52pts

2. Sacramento Republic FC draws vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, ends on 50pts; Colorado Springs ends on 50pts
- AND Las Vegas Lights FC earns result at North Carolina FC, ends on 53/51pts
- AND Any result for Memphis 901 FC at New Mexico United, Memphis ends on 51/49/48pts
- Sacramento holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1) vs. Colorado Springs

3. Sacramento Republic FC loses vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, ends on 49pts
- AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory at New Mexico United, ends on 49pts
- Sacramento holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1) over Memphis

Sacramento Republic FC Clinches Top-Two finish if:
4. Sacramento Republic FC wins vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, ends on 52pts
- AND Las Vegas Lights FC fails to take victory at North Carolina FC, ends on 51pts
4. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 14-11-7, 49pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 4th (50.5 points)
Max Points Available: 52ts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at SAC (10/26)
+
Outlook: The Switchbacks had the best weekend of any team in the top four in the Western Conference with their fourth road win of the season, which put the side in with a chance of a top-two finish as it faces Sacramento Republic FC to close the season. A victory for Colorado Springs and dropped points by Las Vegas Lights FC at North Carolina FC would push the Switchbacks into second, while they’d also have a chance at a top-four finish if they end in a draw, pending the results of Las Vegas and Memphis 901 FC at New Mexico United. A defeat might not be disastrous, either, with the Switchbacks holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Memphis, meaning 901 FC would need to beat New Mexico to jump past Colorado Springs in the final standings.

Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC Clinches Top-Four finish if

1. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC wins at Sacramento Republic FC, ends on 52pts

2a. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC draws at Sacramento Republic FC, ends on 50pts
- AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory at New Mexico United, ends on 49pts

2b. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC draws at Sacramento Republic FC, ends on 50pts
- AND Memphis 901 FC wins at New Mexico United, ends on 51pts
- AND Las Vegas Lights FC loses vs. North Carolina FC, ends on 50pts
- Sacramento Republic FC ends on 50pts

Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC Clinches Top-Two finish if:

1. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC wins vs. Sacramento Republic FC, ends on 52pts
- AND Las Vegas Lights FC fails to take victory at North Carolina FC, ends on 51pts

Under PPG vs. in-conference opposition, final order of three-way tie would be
1. Colorado Springs – 1.59ppg / 14 wins
2. Las Vegas – 1.59ppg / 13 win
3. Sacramento – 1.55ppg

Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at Sacramento Republic FC, ends on 49pts - AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory at New Mexico United, ends on 49pts - Colorado Springs holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1) against Memphis
5. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 13-11-9, 48pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 5th (49.9 points)
Max Points Available: 51pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at NM (10/26)
+
Outlook: Memphis gave itself a chance at a home playoff game to open the playoffs with its victory against Phoenix Rising FC. 901 FC could even move into the top-two in the standings should both Las Vegas Lights FC fail to take victory at North Carolina FC and Sacramento Republic FC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC play to a draw on Saturday night. Memphis holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Las Vegas (1-0-1) but would come out on the short end of a head-to-head against either Republic FC or the Switchbacks, which means a win is their only path to opening the season at AutoZone Park.

Memphis 901 FC clinches a Top-Two Finish if:

Memphis 901 FC takes victory at New Mexico United, ends on 51pts
- Las Vegas Lights FC fail to take victory at North Carolina FC, ends on 51pts; Memphis holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
- AND Sacramento Republic FC and Colorado Springs play to a draw, each side ends on 50pts

Memphis 901 FC clinches a Top-Four Finish if:

Memphis 901 FC takes victory at New Mexico United, ends on 51pts
- AND Las Vegas Lights FC fail to take victory at North Carolina FC, ends on 51pts; Memphis holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
- OR Sacramento Republic FC fails to take victory vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, ends on 50pts
- OR Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC fails to take victory at Sacramento Republic FC, ends on 50pts
6. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 13-15-5, 44pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 6th (45.1 points)
Max Points Available: 47pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. BHM (10/26)
+
Outlook: Oakland delivered one of its best all-around performances of the seasons when it mattered most, earning a 3-2 victory against Las Vegas Lights FC that not only secured its place in the postseason, but closed the door on San Antonio’s chances of getting in. Roots end the season against a Birmingham Legion FC side that while mathematically alive basically isn’t, giving it a chance to solidify its place as the No. 6 seed.
7. Orange County SC
Record: 12-14-7, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 7th (43.8 points)
Max Points Available: 46pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. HFD (10/26)
+
Outlook: Orange County earned its playoff spot on Saturday night thanks to its scoreless draw with New Mexico United alongside San Antonio FC’s draw with Louisville City FC. The 2021 title winners can’t get into the top four from here, but they could have a decisive role to play in the Eastern Conference playoff race as they host a Hartford Athletic side that would clinch a playoff berth if its wins each of its final two games this week.
8. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 11-13-9, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 8th (42.9 points)
Max Points Available: 45pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at LOU (10/26)
+
Outlook: Phoenix can send a gift of gratitude to Oakland Roots SC for securing its berth in the postseason, with Roots’ victory leaving Rising out of reach of San Antonio FC with a three-point margin between the clubs due to Phoenix holding the head-to-head goal differential tiebreaker over San Antonio (1-1-0, +3GD). Rising heads to Louisville this weekend to close the season with sixth the highest it could finish with a victory should both Oakland and Orange County SC drop points in their finales.

Mathematically Eliminated: San Antonio FC, FC Tulsa, Monterey Bay F.C., El Paso Locomotive FC

Eastern Conference

1. Louisville City FC
Record: 23-6-4, 73pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 1st (74.7 points)
Max Points Available: 76pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. PHX (10/26)
+
Outlook: Louisville City can only equal the single-season wins record after its draw with San Antonio FC on Saturday that ended up eliminating the 2022 title winners from postseason contention, and that’s all it really has left to play for with the No. 1 seed and single-season home wins and goals marks already wrapped up.
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 17-6-10, 61pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 2nd (62.9 points)
Max Points Available: 64pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. LDN (10/26)
+
Outlook: The Battery remain locked in the No. 2 spot, but they do have a potential role to play in which teams get into the playoffs through their contest with Loudoun United FC. The visitors are going to need a win plus a lot of help – see Loudoun’s section below – to get what they need to get above the playoff line, but the Battery would eliminate those hopes with a win or a draw to close their home slate.
3. Detroit City FC
Record: 14-8-11, 53pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 3rd (54.3 points)
Max Points Available: 56pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ SA (10/26)
+
Outlook: Detroit City earned a top-four finish with its win against Miami FC and Rhode Island FC’s draw against the Charleston Battery, which means only Indy Eleven can usurp Le Rouge from third position onthe final day of the season. With Detroit holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indy (1-0-1) in their regular season series, the side would need only a draw against San Antonio FC to secure the No. 3 seed in the East.
4. Indy Eleven
Record: 14-10-9, 51pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 4th (51.8 points)
Max Points Available: 54pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ TBR (10/26)
+
Outlook: Indy will be keeping a close eye on the Tampa Bay Rowdies’ clash with Hartford Athletic on Wednesday night with the Rowdies the only team that can keep the Boys in Blue from hosting its Eastern Conference Quarterfinal matchup should they take victory. With Indy having the head-to-headtie breaker over Rhode Island FC (1-0-1), and no potential of a three-way tie for fourth, the Boys in Blue might have secured a top-four position before they square off with the Rowdies on Saturday night.

Indy Eleven Clinches a Top-Four finish if:

1. Tampa Bay Rowdies fail to take victory vs. Hartford Athletic, maximum drops to 50pts
- Indy (51pts) holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1) vs. Rhode Island FC (48pts) with one game to play
5. Rhode Island FC
Record: 11-7-15, 48pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish:5th (49.6 points)
Max Points Available: 51pts

Magic Number: 1

Up Next: vs. MIA (10/26)
+
Outlook: Rhode Island is going to reach the USL Championship Playoffs regardless of the outcomes of this weekend’s matchups, putting it in that gray area of “going to the playoffs, but not yet having crossed the finish line” under official league protocols. The easiest way for Rhode Island to officially clinch its berth, of course, is for Hartford Athletic to fail to take victory against the Tampa Bay Rowdies on Wednesday night, which would leave RIFC at least four points ahead of its regional rival. If things goto the final day of the season, however, in the situation of a three-way tie between Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, Rhode Island FC and North Carolina FC should Pittsburgh and North Carolina each win their regular season finales and Rhode Island fail to take victory, RIFC would finish second in the trio, ensuring it would finish no lower than eighth in the Eastern Conference.

Rhode Island FC Clinches a Playoff Berth if:

1. Hartford Athletic fails to take victory at Tampa Bay Rowdies, maximum drops to 47pts
6. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 13-12-7, 46pts

Playoffs Odds: 82%

Projected Finish: 6th (47.4 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: 3

Up Next: vs. HFD (10/23); vs. IND (10/26)
+
Outlook: Despite a run of four defeats in a row, the Tampa Bay Rowdies are still in a good spot to earn aplayoff spot and could do on Wednesday due to the current shape of the standings in the Eastern Conference and their victory against Hartford Athletic earlier this season. If the Rowdies earn at least adraw, they can’t be matched by any other side but Hartford on 47pts. Holding the head-to-head tiebreaker with a 1-0-1 record in the series, Tampa Bay would thus be in. If it takes victory, meanwhile, it sets up a winner takes a home playoff game showdown with Indy Eleven on Saturday night.

Tampa Bay Rowdies Clinch a Playoff Berth if:

1. Tampa Bay Rowdies win vs. Hartford Athletic, move to 49pts

2. Tampa Bay Rowdies draw vs. Hartford Athletic, move to 47pts
- Hartford’s maximum available drops to 47pts, Tampa Bay holds head-to-head (1-0-1) over Hartford with no other side able to finish on 47pts in Eastern Conference
7. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 11-10-12, 45pts

Playoffs Odds: 78%

Projected Finish: 8th (46.1 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. ELP (10/26)
+
Outlook: The Hounds’ victory against Loudoun United FC put them on the verge of a seventh consecutive postseason berth. A win on Saturday against El Paso Locomotive FC would assure the side of a postseason berth should it come via a head-to-head tiebreaker or via its points-per-game vs. in-conference opposition mark of 1.5ppg, which sits as the most among the four teams that could end the season on 48 points, ahead of Rhode Island, Tampa Bay and North Carolina FC under that scenario. Pittsburgh will have an eye on Tampa Bay’s game against Hartford Athletic on Wednesday night, to see how high a seed they might be able to claim with victory against Locomotive.
8. North Carolina FC
Record: 12-12-9, 45pts

Playoffs Odds: 71%

Projected Finish: 7th (46.3 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. LV (10/26)
+
Outlook: North Carolina took another big step toward the postseason with its win against the Tampa Bay Rowdies on Saturday, but it’s going to have a close eye on the Rowdies’ contest against Hartford Athletic on Wednesday night. Either side dropping points will benefit North Carolina, with Rowdies win or a draw potentially the best possible result as it would leave NCFC ahead of Hartford going to the final game of the season and in control of its path as it hosts Las Vegas Lights FC.
9. Hartford Athletic
Record: 12-13-7, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: 49%

Projected Finish: 11th (43.9 points)
Max Points Available: 49pts

Magic Number: 6

Up Next: @ TBR (10/23); @ OC (10/26)
+
Outlook: With two games to play, Hartford is still in control of its path to the playoffs, but this Wednesday night’s game with Tampa Bay is critical. With a win, Athletic puts itself in a win-and-you’re in scenario as it heads to face Orange County SC, which has already secured its playoff berth. If it only draws, it’s going to enter the final game needing help from elsewhere in the form of either Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC or North Carolina FC dropping points. Hartford’s regular season series with both clubs ended all square, meaning the tiebreaker would head to PPG vs. in-conference opposition. Hartford would come up short with a 1.23ppg should it draw with Tampa Bay compared to North Carolina’s 1.27ppg and Pittsburgh’s 1.5ppg, which would effectively make the Orange County game a must-win for Athletic.
10. Loudoun United FC
Record: 11-13-9, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: 24%

Projected Finish: 10th (43.0 points)
Max Points Available: 45pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ CHS (10/26)
+
Outlook: Officially, Loudoun United FC is not out of playoff contention following its loss to Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC on Saturday night, but it must have a lot go right for it to get above the playoff line on Saturday. What United is effectively looking for is a multi-way tie on 45 points, which requires it to win on the road against the Charleston Battery, and for both Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and North Carolina FC lose their final two games, and for Hartford Athletic fail to take victory in its final two contests. That would put Loudoun in with a points-per-game vs. in-conference opposition mark of 1.36ppg, ahead of both North Carolina (1.27ppg) and Hartford (1.23ppg) as the No. 8 seed.
11. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 12-15-6, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: <1%

Projected Finish: 11th (42.9 points)
Max Points Available: 45pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ OAK (10/26)
+
Outlook: As you might have guessed from Legion’s message on social media last night, the math just ain’t mathin’ for them to get into the playoffs. Birmingham would be looking for the same scenario as Loudoun in terms of a win and results elsewhere ending up in a five-way tie on 45 points for the final two playoff berths, but Legion’s in-conference points-per-game mark of 0.95ppg would put it last in the collective, giving it no path to the postseason from here.

Mathematically Eliminated: Miami FC

Follow the USL Championship

Most Recent News

View All |

Most Read News

View All

Latest Videos

View All |

Tag(s): Features  San Antonio FC  CO Spring Switchbacks  Orange County SC  Phoenix Rising FC  Sacramento Republic FC  FC Tulsa  Charleston Battery  Louisville City FC  Pittsburgh Riverhounds  Tampa Bay Rowdies  Las Vegas Lights FC  Birmingham Legion FC  North Carolina FC  Indy Eleven  Memphis 901 FC  El Paso Locomotive FC  New Mexico United  Loudoun United FC  Hartford Athletic  San Diego Loyal SC  Miami FC  Oakland Roots SC  Detroit City FC  Monterey Bay F.C.  Rhode Island FC 

Share